Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgment of global risks

The moral may be that once you can guess what your answer will be - once you can assign a greater probability to your answering one way than another - you have, in all probability, already decided. And if you were honest with yourself, you would often be able to guess your final answer within seconds of hearing the question. We change our minds less often than we think. How fleeting is that brief unnoticed moment when we can't yet guess what our answer will be, the tiny fragile instant when there's a chance for intelligence to act. In questions of choice, as in questions of fact.
Thor Shenkel said: "It ain't a true crisis of faith unless things could just as easily go either way."